Bihar's Poll of Polls show NDA's comeback with 133-167 seats; Mahagathbandhan to get 70-102

Exit polls for the crucial Bihar Assembly elections of 2025, released immediately after the conclusion of the second phase of voting on Tuesday, strongly indicate a return to power for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). With the magic number for a majority in the 243-member assembly set at 122, almost all major surveys project the NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, to comfortably surpass this mark, securing a fresh term in office despite a spirited contest from the opposition.

The projections suggest that the election was primarily a two-way race, but the NDA managed to maintain its upper hand. The People's Insight exit poll estimates the NDA's seat tally to fall between 133 and 148, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to secure 87 to 102 seats. The Matrize agency predicted an even bigger victory margin for the NDA, placing them between 147 and 167 seats, and limiting the MGB to a range of 70 to 80 seats.

The overall trend is further cemented by the People's Pulse survey, which projects the NDA to win between 133 and 159 seats. These figures collectively suggest that while the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan mounted a fierce challenge, the incumbent alliance successfully mitigated anti-incumbency factors, particularly in key urban and rural constituencies.

The high-stakes election pitted the veteran leadership of Nitish Kumar against the youthful appeal and promise of change offered by Tejashwi Yadav. The results, which will be officially counted and declared on November 14th, will determine whether the NDA's governance record or the MGB's focus on employment and social justice ultimately resonated more with the voters.