India set for above-normal monsoon in 2025, IMD predicts 105% rainfall

India is likely to receive above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025, as per the seasonal forecast released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Rainfall is projected to be 105% of the long-period average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±5%, giving a strong signal of a good monsoon season.

The IMD defines "normal" rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average, which stands at 87 cm. Anything beyond that range qualifies as “above normal.” A forecast of 105% falls comfortably in this category and is expected to bring optimism to the country’s agrarian economy.

The monsoon, which usually sets in over Kerala around June 1 and retreats by mid-September, plays a crucial role in India's agriculture, water security, and overall economy. A healthy monsoon boosts kharif crop sowing, improves reservoir levels, and curbs inflation linked to food prices.

This year, the IMD has flagged neutral conditions in both the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which are considered favourable for consistent rainfall across the country. El Nino, which typically weakens monsoon currents, has subsided, while the IOD is also in a neutral phase.

While most parts of the country are expected to receive sufficient rainfall, certain regions like Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, and parts of the Northeast may see below-normal precipitation. However, this deviation is not expected to offset the overall monsoon performance.

A reduced snow cover over Eurasia and the Himalayas is another positive indicator. Historically, lighter snowpack in these regions correlates with stronger Indian monsoons. Combined with neutral ocean conditions, this factor adds to the confidence in the above-average rainfall forecast.

Farmers, policymakers, and the energy sector are expected to benefit significantly from this prediction. With food prices already under scrutiny and reservoir levels a concern, the monsoon’s performance will be closely monitored over the coming months.