India’s per capita GDP projected below Bangladesh in 2026, IMF data shows

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook for April 2026 has projected that Bangladesh’s per capita gross domestic product may slightly exceed India’s in the year 2026. According to the data, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP is estimated at $2,911, while India’s is projected at $2,812, marking a narrow reversal in comparison between the two South Asian economies.

The IMF data also highlights that this development does not indicate a long-term structural shift, as India is still projected to regain and maintain a lead over Bangladesh in the subsequent years. In 2025, India’s per capita GDP stood at $2,675, marginally ahead of Bangladesh’s $2,635, while Bangladesh had been ahead in 2023 and 2024 as well, showing a fluctuating trend between the two economies.

For 2027, the IMF projects India’s per capita GDP to rise to $3,074, compared to Bangladesh’s $3,048, indicating India’s return to a lead position. The report further states that India is expected to remain ahead of Bangladesh in per capita GDP terms at least until 2031, based on current growth assumptions and demographic projections.

Despite the per capita comparison, the overall scale of India’s economy remains significantly larger. India’s total GDP for 2026 is estimated at $4.1 trillion, compared to Bangladesh’s $510 billion, reflecting the vast difference in overall economic size and output between the two countries.

The IMF World Economic Outlook also situates these figures within broader global conditions, noting that worldwide growth is expected to remain moderate amid geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, and inflationary pressures. It added that external shocks, including conflicts in West Asia, continue to influence commodity prices, financial conditions, and overall global economic stability.